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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1522

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 13 18:58:33 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 131858
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131858=20
    IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-132100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1522
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0158 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of central into southeastern SD and far
    northeastern NE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 131858Z - 132100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe-storm
    potential this afternoon. It is unclear if a watch will be needed,
    though convective trends are being monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorm development is underway along a
    weak confluence zone/wind shift extending east-southeastward across
    South Dakota this afternoon. This activity is developing along the
    eastern edge of an EML plume and related steep midlevel lapse rates
    atop an increasingly unstable boundary layer. Given an uncapped and
    moderately unstable pre-convective environment, storms may increase
    in intensity during the next couple of hours. And, 40-50 kt of
    effective shear (characterized by a long/mostly straight hodograph)
    should support a mix of organized clusters and splitting supercells
    capable of producing large hail and severe gusts. While coverage of
    severe storms is uncertain, convective trends are being monitored
    for a possible watch this afternoon.

    ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4XFH6cZHi-EFHLT9lG58TbIxthMNesUToD81EWM8x9AzbSb6zRvX4TFVkTANqAodbqlvqSQVE= cf_M4nVWl6G7_tkJpM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 43320014 43670068 44060092 44500101 44860081 44940045
    44919991 44789915 44569832 44389773 44059700 43569662
    43029651 42649679 42649737 42709850 43089966 43320014=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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