ACUS11 KWNS 131559
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131558=20
VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-131800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1517
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Portions of NY...VT...and far northern PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 131558Z - 131800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes will increase this afternoon. Watch issuance is likely.
Parts of this area will be upgraded to Enhanced Risk (for severe
wind gusts) with the 1630Z Day 1 Convective Outlook.

DISCUSSION...Airmass destabilization is rapidly occurring across NY
and vicinity as ample daytime heating has already warmed surface
temperatures mostly into upper 70s and 80s. A rather moist low-level
airmass is also present based on recent surface dewpoint
observations and area 12Z soundings. Further heating of this moist
airmass will likely lead to the development of around 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE along/ahead of a cold front. This front, coupled with
large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough ejecting
across the Northeast and southern Quebec, will likely foster robust thunderstorm development within the next couple of hours as parcels
reach their LFCs.

Recent VWPs from KENX and KCXX show a veering and strengthening wind
profile with height through mid levels, with around 30-35 kt of
deep-layer shear. This should provide sufficient updraft
organization to support a mix of cellular and linear modes.
Convection developing along the cold front is already beginning to
show signs of deepening in far western NY. This trend should
continue over the next couple of hours as the front moves eastward
across NY. As low-level lapse rates become steep, scattered to
numerous damaging downdraft winds will be a concern with any
clusters/lines that can become established. Convection that remains
at least semi-discrete will pose a threat for hail. The presence of
a seasonably strong (25-35+ kt) southerly low-level jet across much
of NY and vicinity will also provide sufficient 0-1 km SRH to
support some threat for a couple of tornadoes, both with supercells
and line-embedded vorticies. Recent (12Z) high-resolution guidance
suggests that a mainly linear mode should dominate. Given the
increased potential for scattered to numerous damaging/severe winds
this afternoon, parts of central/eastern NY and VT will be upgraded
to Enhanced Risk with the 1630Z Day 1 Convective Outlook.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6SV_xljua-K_1CRjmUfjqtvOp9kaNdNNCmntBj3qXzmj9NMfZF06QZ-ZzCUNVHEs1AgdzQvTq= SCQca9ddx60zpA8aiA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 42537728 44437586 45027494 44977225 44437204 43357271
42747328 41647453 41907645 42537728=20


=3D =3D =3D
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