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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1515

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 13 07:20:57 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 130720
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130720=20
    TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-130845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1515
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0220 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

    Areas affected...southeast MO and northeast AR

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479...480...

    Valid 130720Z - 130845Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479, 480
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe gusts may continue for another
    couple of hours across southeast MO into northeast AR.

    DISCUSSION...A bowing cluster of storms tracking east/southeast
    across south-central MO will continue to shift into parts of
    southeast MO/northeast AR the next 1-2 hours. This bow has shown
    some better organization, and increasing velocity signatures aloft
    (about 4-6 kft ARL). The downstream airmass remains very moist and
    moderately unstable. Effective shear magnitude around 25-30 kt
    should aid in maintaining this convection with southeast extent. It
    is unclear how far east/southeast near-severe caliber winds may
    continue as low-level inhibition increases toward the MO Bootheel
    vicinity. Instability also wanes with eastward extent and convection
    will move further away from the eastern extent of a modest low-level
    jet. While this may support a gradual weakening trend with time,
    expected that 45-60 mph gusts will persist for at least the next 1-2
    hours. The need for a downstream watch to the east of WW 479 and WW
    480 is uncertain, and trends will continue to be monitored.

    ..Leitman.. 07/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!63xBhzrJ40FyB7HwxQH2xSDucPIJn7YeOFsQ7elMe_jtO-YiVGL5nD9mVoI2v642EqVmB33Wb= o_vhtwT2gdrE2V5C8Y$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

    LAT...LON 37499192 36969031 36298959 35958969 35679027 35819111
    36069185 36569242 36989260 37499192=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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