ACUS11 KWNS 130402
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130402=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1513
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Areas affected...Southeast KS...Southwest
MO...North-central/northeast OK...Extreme northwest AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479...

Valid 130402Z - 130600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail/wind continues across WW 479,
and may eventually spread south of the watch overnight.

DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing
late this evening from southeast KS into southwest/central MO.
Earlier storms east of Kansas City produced measured wind gusts of
60-70 mph and some hail, but that area of storms subsequently
weakened as it moved eastward into parts of central MO in the
immediate wake of an earlier storm cluster.=20

Farther west, a potentially severe cell is ongoing across Bourbon
County, KS, with additional development noted as far southwest as
extreme north-central OK. With a modest low-level jet expected to
remain focused across southeast KS/southwest MO, intense storms
capable of hail and severe gusts will remain possible across this
area into the overnight hours, in the presence of strong buoyancy
and favorable deep-layer shear. Some organized upscale growth
remains possible, which could eventually result in a severe threat
spreading into parts of northeast OK and northwest AR. MLCINH is
notably stronger farther southwest into northern OK, but short-term
forecast soundings suggest weaker CINH for storms based around 800
mb in this area, and a few stronger elevated cells/clusters could
evolve overnight.=20

Given the potential for strong to potentially severe storms to
develop and/or move into northern OK and northwest AR, watch
issuance downstream of WW 479 is possible later tonight.

..Dean/Guyer.. 07/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6faNPA9IrQeNihUhzl5IydWBAzQojwEg6xpcxVu3AdCv-ouTJzba-rsUjv9_6s2jfgs_SbYax= TWPIexA4zHJKgxShI0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
DDC...

LAT...LON 37019866 38049683 38949471 38679242 38179152 37659147
37109178 36779237 36079437 36039805 36259871 36649875
36829875 37019866=20


=3D =3D =3D
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