ACUS11 KWNS 130206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130206=20
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-130330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1511
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0906 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Areas affected...Southeast MO into southwest IL and extreme western
KY

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479...

Valid 130206Z - 130330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479
continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging-wind threat will continue to spread southward
this evening. Downstream watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Convection over eastern MO has recently accelerated south-southeastward and evolved into a small bowing cluster, with
rather strong winds (60+ kt) noted at around 1 km AGL from the KLSX
radar. While deep-layer shear decreases with southeastward extent,
rich low-level moisture and favorable buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of
2000 J/kg) will support maintenance of this cluster in the short
term, given its current state of organization. Some damaging-wind
threat may spread south of WW 479, and downstream watch issuance is
possible into southeast MO and vicinity prior to 03 UTC. Eventual
weakening is expected later tonight, due to the effects of
decreasing deep-layer shear and nocturnal cooling/stabilization.

..Dean/Guyer.. 07/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Blvbw7nBMi2nxBy5N57JAmFcfwm9oXJUfKVCOHwtnzjYKFZ3_Kn9Vn2TQABlRcGqKiKxNCVB= 98327SumqD3dPjdcn4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 38199149 38268987 36988883 36658921 36649035 36779097
37359141 37489148 38199149=20


=3D =3D =3D
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