ACUS11 KWNS 120740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120739=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-120915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1502
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Areas affected...southern SD into northern NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475...

Valid 120739Z - 120915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475
continues.

SUMMARY...A thunderstorm cluster near the Nebraska/South Dakota
border is expected to pose a risk for damaging gusts greater than 65
mph through early morning.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storm over south-central SD/north-central
NE has intensified over the past 30 minutes or so. Most recently, a
severe gust to 62 kt was observed at KVTN. IR satellite imagery also
is showing some modest cloud top cooling. This cluster is moving
southeast into the axis of a stronger southerly low-level jet of
around 25-30 kt. This should aid in further organization amid
moderate to strong instability (2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) and effective
shear magnitudes greater than 55 kt. This organizing cluster should
promote development of a fast-moving bowing MCS, and the better
chances for a swath of damaging gust potential will exist across
southeast SD near the NE state line into north-central and northeast
NE through early morning.

..Leitman.. 07/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!59fphi6zfeqgt8SYECt09pmMtZyNt36Uaq_LnDTM6vXaoBsBShBDSwKIFIwtW4rIlu5Fy6Nbs= SBOJgQmmcVDZTZJ8Mo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 42590076 43100065 43620000 43959877 43809771 43289675
42669634 41799615 41679636 41539711 41589787 41849925
42370054 42590076=20


=3D =3D =3D
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