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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1500

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 12 00:27:46 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 120027
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120027=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-120200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1500
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0727 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

    Areas affected...Northern High Plains

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473...474...

    Valid 120027Z - 120200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473, 474
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will spread southeast across the
    northern High Plains this evening. Large hail will be common with
    this activity.

    DISCUSSION...Heights are being suppressed across MT/northern WY
    early this evening ahead of a pronounced short-wave trough that will
    soon begin to dig southeast toward the western Dakotas. Scattered
    severe supercells have evolved ahead of this feature across eastern
    MT into western SD and latest MRMS radar data suggest several
    updrafts are generating hail in excess of 2 inches. Later this
    evening LLJ should respond to the short wave and increase across
    western NE. This should encourage upscale growth as convection
    spreads southeast. Over the last hour or so, a few updrafts have
    struggled over Cherry County NE along the well-defined synoptic
    boundary. Given that surface temperatures are only in the 80s along
    this wind shift convection may continue to struggle to initiate.
    Even so, multiple thunderstorm clusters will spread across western
    SD toward northern NE later this evening. At that time a new watch
    may be warranted.

    ..Darrow.. 07/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6ABDAqjldSpmFP0vdCQ4jywpggs_CC3NW0k9bAUz9OpN9i1phKLYf68j_hqNCPITyVTxSj84z= wSiipI1vm-n08ZZMiY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 46660289 45540201 43940149 43119985 42420081 43440423
    44880643 46890493 46660289=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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