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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1498

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 11 19:05:13 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 111905
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111904=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-112100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1498
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0204 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern MT...southwestern
    ND...northeastern WY...and western SD

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 111904Z - 112100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms capable of producing very large hail and severe
    winds should spread eastward across the area this afternoon and
    evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued in the
    next hour or two.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows gradually
    deepening boundary-layer cumulus and isolated convective development
    across parts of central into eastern MT this afternoon. Continued
    diurnal heating/destabilization of a moist air mass (lower 60s
    dewpoints) and DCVA preceding a shortwave trough over northwestern
    MT should allow for additional thunderstorm development during the
    next couple hours. 40-50 kt of midlevel westerly flow (per regional
    VWP data) atop low-level southeasterlies will yield a long/straight
    hodograph (45-55-kt effective shear) supportive of discrete
    /semi-discrete splitting supercells. Very large hail up to 2.5
    inches in diameter and locally severe winds will be possible with
    these storms. With time, cell mergers and localized upscale growth
    into several organized clusters will be possible, with a continued
    risk of large hail and increasing damaging-wind threat. A severe
    thunderstorm watch will likely be issued during the next hour or two
    for parts of the area.

    ..Weinman/Mosier.. 07/11/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4UL55blrr-LO1TlvkbOMaSnrNEDtAQPTkeJZLBCHyfZVFkAzSgYeTRQjvvZvDdXbsG_QsoeD-= hpCVd4Z8QIzOvNdNY8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

    LAT...LON 44900659 45720724 46760745 47650750 48250740 48480716
    48540677 48500623 48120520 47710431 47120352 46560292
    46040248 45290195 44780169 44430156 44150148 43580150
    43290177 43090219 43050302 43120344 43300390 43520438
    43720478 43990531 44480609 44900659=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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