ACUS11 KWNS 111759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111758=20
MIZ000-111930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1497
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

Areas affected...East-central Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 111758Z - 111930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms has developed across
Ontario along a cold front. 18Z Surface analysis shows this cold
front extending across central Michigan. However, thunderstorm
activity has been more sparse, likely related to weaker ascent away
from the mid-level shortwave trough and weaker low-level convergence
along the front. However, some destabilization has occurred south of
this front with temperatures in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in
the mid 60s yielding around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. The DTX VWP shows
around 30 knots of westerly flow above 2km which will provide enough
shear for some organization, but not enough for a more substantial
threat. A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging winds are
possible, but the expectation for mostly unorganized/weak intensity
storms and the limited duration of the threat, make a severe
thunderstorm watch unlikely.

..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/11/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-FHYNrC5tpJ09IF_3MwAwxzanNmFHfhGG-_EHRySPV5Q4OmJ-bJgLhLkxEMtJ9pDHWtSoC6CL= dR5x-AiiqgIWhoeJq8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...

LAT...LON 42628294 42738364 43158414 43688397 44008373 44188272
44078236 43788210 43388197 43078221 42968239 42628294=20


=3D =3D =3D
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