ACUS11 KWNS 110540
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110540=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-110715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1496
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

Areas affected...western/central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 110540Z - 110715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters may pose a risk of sporadic hail to
near 1 inch diameter and gusty winds overnight.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing across parts of western
and central OK late tonight ahead of a convectively enhanced
vorticity maxima now ejecting across the OK/TX Panhandles. This
activity is developing in an environment with MUCAPE around
1500-2500 J/kg and effective shear near 30 kt. A 05z RAOB from OUN
also shows steep midlevel lapse rates are present, but SB/ML CINH
are also large. This may support briefly intense cores capable of
producing hail. Regional VWP data and 850 mb RAP objective analysis
indicates only modest low-level flow. Strong low-level inhibition
and the absence of a stronger low-level jet to aid in storm
organization should limit severe potential to a couple of briefly
intense cells. Sporadic hail and gusty winds will be the main
concern with this activity over the next few hours. While a severe
thunderstorm watch does not appear likely at this time, trends will
be monitored and a watch could be issued if better storm
organization can occur.

..Leitman/Hart.. 07/11/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8zV2Td-wO_67CG2l_7RSPfbIHAvJ3kCevRbGX1U6RnUUldpCbjF14kA-XAIppOsHY0SrbDDoJ= FIPscYtUu8IfIwaoAU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 35099941 35389969 35709998 36019998 36539947 36899880
37009833 37009812 36919762 36449711 35589650 34689620
34379640 34259693 34689836 35099941=20


=3D =3D =3D
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