ACUS11 KWNS 110010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110010=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-110215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1492
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0710 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Areas affected...western into central Kansas...the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles into western Oklahoma...parts of east central
New Mexico

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 468...

Valid 110010Z - 110215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 468
continues.

SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong thunderstorm development posing a
risk for severe hail and wind will remain possible into the 8-10 PM
CDT time frame, with the potential for one or two clusters of storms
to gradually evolve. A new watch will probably be issued prior to
the scheduled expiration off WW 468.

DISCUSSION...Eastward advancing outflow, from convection earlier
near the Front Range, did contribute to sufficient forcing to
support initiation of thunderstorm activity in stronger instability
near the Colorado/Kansas border, between the two earlier initiating
clusters. This convection persists as well, but remains modest in
the face of strong inhibition associated with warm elevated
mixed-layer air. This airmass includes 16-18 C around 700 mb, in a
plume east of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains through
much of western Kansas, northwestern Oklahoma and the Texas
Panhandle.

Beneath 20+ kt northwesterly mid-level flow, which is contributing
to strong shear, various model output continues to suggest that
forcing along developing cold pools progressing through a corridor
of large potential instability may maintain thunderstorm development
through the 01-03Z time frame. How strong remains unclear, but
stronger low-level warm advection along a remnant zone of stronger
differential surface heating across the Panhandle region seems to
offer one potential focus for an upscale growing cluster. Other
model output suggests that merging/consolidating convection south of
North Platte and east of McCook Nebraska might also contribute to a
more prominent upscale growing cluster.

..Kerr.. 07/11/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-nje2tZqKQ4K9I9sFO-cjpvACOLqrK3WA6I_ayvjPcjizRYvvNPWRbf9-1jKd1biby2m3iLv-= 1IjZRun6CZyCYhyeXk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 39560042 39619870 37559859 34940012 34420079 34670181
36310207 37110146 38400105 39560042=20


=3D =3D =3D
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