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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1491

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 10 23:19:07 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 102319
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 102318=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-110015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1491
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0618 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

    Areas affected...Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 102318Z - 110015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe potential is increasing across portions of southern
    Minnesota and Northern Iowa. This area is being monitored for a
    potential watch.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows cumulus tower development along
    an east-west cold front located across central Minnesota within the
    last hour with a few attempts at cell development. Hi-res guidance
    indicates that storms will develop along this boundary and move
    southward through the evening. In addition, storms and attendant
    outflow are moving northeastward out of WW469. MLCAPE around 1000
    J/kg has been advecting into this region along with mid 60s dew
    points in southerly flow. Deep layer shear is weaker with eastward
    extent into central Minnesota and northern Iowa but along the
    boundary 20-30 kts of deep layer shear is noted in surface objective
    analysis. Initial storm development would be capable of large hail
    and damaging winds. It is uncertain if storms will maintain severe characteristics through time, given the generally more stable air
    mass across central Iowa and weakening shear profiles. Trends will
    be monitored across this area should a watch be needed.

    ..Thornton/Guyer.. 07/10/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5P_ABuLYmSBq3XOwJhV_DF338-NRAf4bMCpUBD-Tzr-QNYhMcUsGY4tQlAnsthDGMu0s4zljU= 4Sew7JocntfzPiG0Q0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 43789537 43989504 44159446 44259407 44359375 44429340
    44459306 44459279 44429257 44399227 44179166 43839118
    43529115 43229127 43049155 42979217 42889273 42909334
    42909394 43219479 43299495 43429517 43569539 43789537=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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