ACUS11 KWNS 102200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102159=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-110000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1488
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Areas affected...parts of southwestern Nebraska...eastern
Colorado...western Kansas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 468...

Valid 102159Z - 110000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 468
continues.

SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development
remains possible into the 6-8 PM CDT time frame, with at least one
upscale growing cluster possibly beginning to evolve across far
southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle vicinity.=20
Areas to the south of WW 468 are still being monitored for an
additional severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong thunderstorm development
continues to propagate slowly eastward into lee surface troughing,
where a more moist boundary-layer has become characterized by large
CAPE, but remains fairly strongly capped based on latest
mesoanalysis. Storm motions are slow due to weak deep-layer mean
flow on the order of 15 kts or less, but, due to veering profiles
with height, deep-layer shear is strong and supportive of organized
convection, including supercells.

Highest potential for continuing storm development into 23-01Z may
remain focused roughly northwest through north of the Goodland
vicinity, where inhibition appears weakest, and north through east
of the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle
vicinity, where activity may be aided by forcing associated with a
perturbation rounding the northeast periphery of the subtropical
high. The southern storm development may begin to focus and
organize along a zone of stronger differential surface heating
extending northwest through southeast across the Panhandle vicinity.

..Kerr.. 07/10/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_HExE2mX5OtN7rQmCjw_tKNzpFbkAI4vf0WjgjFz98Zy3eN0nSqlsXfLe4ddyOHmas_0qNfS0= y1RPrwPOQzQC2l38QY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 39750160 40540104 39769982 37390109 35970039 35220176
35200332 35790330 36390272 37320275 37970266 39280224
39750160=20


=3D =3D =3D
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