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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1487

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 10 20:43:05 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 102043
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 102042=20
    MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-102245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1487
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0342 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

    Areas affected...Far southeastern MN...northern WI...and southern
    Upper MI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 102042Z - 102245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for severe storms capable of damaging winds
    and large hail should increase during the next few hours. A watch
    may eventually be needed for parts of the area.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite loops indicate deepening cumulus
    along an east-west-oriented cold front draped across parts of Upper
    MI, northern WI, and east-central MN. Continued diurnal
    destabilization amid frontal convergence should support increasing
    convective development during the next couple hours in the vicinity
    of the front as it moves slowly southward. Around 40 kt of effective
    shear oriented parallel to the cold front should favor a couple
    organized clusters and perhaps supercell structures capable of
    damaging winds and isolated large hail. With the stronger deep-layer
    flow/shear generally confined to the cool side of the cold front, it
    is somewhat unclear how organized storms will be as they progress
    southward into the stronger surface-based instability into the early
    evening. Environmental and convective trends will be monitored
    during the next couple hours for a potential watch issuance.

    ..Weinman/Mosier.. 07/10/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9H5Mapyf4Ue9Z8pW9MCF3Imqv2wrMn3-QJe8yxGFi0DJwhT76eFBhiChhsiEg1gPjJnbBvHJH= _LmdwJmDd4v8WqtjeM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 45328659 45948623 46208640 46318677 46278740 46228833
    46138997 45989094 45789198 45579268 45309326 45019348
    44579354 44199316 44009271 44039203 44129150 44439022
    44668915 44978716 45328659=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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