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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1486

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 10 20:34:07 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 102034
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 102033=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-102200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1486
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0333 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico and the western OK/TX
    Panhandles.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 102033Z - 102200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing severe storm coverage is expected this
    afternoon/evening across eastern New Mexico and the western OK/TX
    Panhandles. A watch may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...A diffuse dryline continues to mix east across eastern
    New Mexico with a bulge west of Lubbock with dewpoints now in the
    50s. SPC mesoanalysis continues to indicate a weak capping inversion
    along and behind this dryline and visible satellite trends support
    this. Therefore, thunderstorms have been mostly confined to the
    mountains farther west in New Mexico, where the environment is
    uncapped but instability is weak (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE). Eventually
    expect these storms to move farther east into the plains and expect
    the CAP to erode further as ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level
    shortwave trough overspreads the area. This may also allow for some
    additional convection to develop near the NM/TX border in the
    vicinity of the dryline. Effective shear remains quite weak in the
    region (~15 knots per FDX VWP), but a deeply mixed sub-cloud layer
    could support enhanced downdrafts from evaporative cooling and
    development of a few bowing segments.

    ..Bentley.. 07/10/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-vshS62zdChDygmKErnqaTbLs3mh1cwnUc7HxNIS3BTce0t_80HEGqmtNTaL8eP6zUqO7nthK= yCfGeVTHvsV_NEP4uM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 36950136 36550130 35780133 34620150 33430192 33260275
    33320355 33860442 35730434 36930380 37010273 36970248
    36950136=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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