ACUS11 KWNS 102008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102007=20
MTZ000-IDZ000-102230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1485
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Areas affected...Portions of eastern ID and western MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 102007Z - 102230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe storms are possible this
afternoon. Marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts are the
main concerns.

DISCUSSION...Low-topped thunderstorms are gradually increasing in
coverage across the higher terrain in eastern ID and far western MT
-- aided by broad large-scale ascent preceding a shortwave trough
over the Pacific Northwest. During the next couple hours, continued
diurnal heating amid cloud breaks should yield weakly unstable
surface-based inflow for this activity. A belt of around 30-kt
midlevel southwesterly flow (per regional VWP) accompanying the
shortwave trough should support brief updraft organization and an
attendant risk of marginally severe hail and locally severe gusts
with the stronger/longer-lived cores. The severe risk is expected to
remain too isolated/sporadic for a watch.

..Weinman/Mosier.. 07/10/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9ELlCa0gLjzUnwmvFwcmVsA0liIFzHheG2_Oo_a9l8Lm9IPwfjQj1BDCxPYrpVaYwRodX8e11= dWOtxAtEcu4nzL9fJA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON 45161148 44891234 44771299 44741352 44831402 45091444
45491471 45991485 46531485 47041462 47361430 47671382
47781339 47881267 47791211 47661172 47261121 46561096
45931093 45391113 45161148=20


=3D =3D =3D
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