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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1484

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 10 19:09:34 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 101909
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101909=20
    IAZ000-NEZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-102115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1484
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0209 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of NE...southeastern SD...and northwestern
    IA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 101909Z - 102115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe-storm
    potential this afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
    needed in the next hour or two.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations indicate a northeast-southwest-oriented pre-frontal trough/wind shift extending
    from southeastern SD into northern NE. Along the wind shift in SD,
    strong surface heating amid upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints is
    supporting a locally uncapped air mass and isolated thunderstorm
    development. While weak large-scale ascent over the surface boundary
    casts uncertainty on storm coverage, around 40-50 kt of effective
    shear (characterized by a long/straight hodograph) will
    conditionally support organized storms including supercells this
    afternoon into the evening. The weak large-scale ascent and
    deep-layer shear vectors oriented perpendicular to the boundary
    should favor discrete/semi-discrete supercells initially, with a
    risk of large hail (some up to 2 inches in diameter) and locally
    damaging gusts. With time, localized clustering will be possible
    owing to storm splits/mergers, and the severe-wind risk could
    increase as a result. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
    needed in the next hour or two.

    ..Weinman/Mosier.. 07/10/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4fGqIcq21pESmaLzvlJgApiA64kqXw0H4p83yNUmgjq49y-rtYCDDue-V8xP0PuANQkHh5gbR= oYzwR06KfZxvcVN2AU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

    LAT...LON 40020053 40100100 40540143 41030146 41350135 41710099
    41940070 42200030 42479990 42869926 43079872 43359798
    43469743 43549677 43479607 43449554 43289507 42949483
    42509490 42109523 41689577 41129679 40679789 40059974
    40020053=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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