ACUS11 KWNS 101848
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101847=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-102045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1483
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...northwest Kansas...and far
southwest Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 101847Z - 102045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms are expected to intensify as they
move east.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of high-based thunderstorms has developed
over the Rockies and is beginning to emerge over the foothills.
Currently these storms are in a region with mid 80s temperatures and
dewpoints around 40F. This is yielding high-based storms with
primarily a wind threat. Expect the greater threat to be farther
east across Colorado where dewpoints are in the 60s with MLCAPE
around 1500 J/kg (per SPC mesoanalysis).

In addition, this initial cluster of storms is forming on the
southern periphery of better mid-level flow within the right
entrance region of a mid-level jet streak across Nebraska. This,
combined with the effects from a developing weak cyclone should
provide a focus for additional storm development this afternoon and
evening.

The degree of organization of this activity remains somewhat
questionable as storms are expected to remain on the periphery of
the better mid-level flow as the jet streak moves south and east.
Therefore, effective shear will likely range from 25 to 35 knots
with mostly multicells but the potential for some rotating updrafts.

The threat will initially be wind while storms remain high-based
before becoming a greater hail threat as storms move into/form
within a region of greater instability. Eventually the threat should
once again transition to wind later this evening as storms congeal
and eventually merge with storms which are expected to form across
Nebraska and move southeastward.

..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/10/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8VriI-1JjsgQ_hgcRlMxJ_-gdIAR8ArzThOmtHQuGG-0NN8wGmS3v3gCP5mogVMVBR2oA5JxS= V9Sj56-5Ob0nPeBgow$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 40960273 40700210 40300129 39870081 38590071 38100126
37950202 37940255 38140349 38870447 40010452 40910305
40940297 40960273=20


=3D =3D =3D
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