ACUS11 KWNS 101456
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101456=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-101630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1482
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0956 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Areas affected...Northern Florida and southeast Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 101456Z - 101630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...There will be an isolated damaging wind threat as storms
move east across northern Florida and southeast Georgia.

DISCUSSION...Storms have congealed into a line across northern
Florida and southern Georgia. This line is expected to intensify
somewhat as it moves east toward Jacksonville toward midday.
Low-level westerly flow around 30 knots at the JAX and TLH 12Z RAOB
will support the threat for some 30-40 knot wind gusts. However,
given the weak low-level lapse rates and a nearly moist adiabatic
thermodynamic profile from the surface to the EL, expect minimal
additional acceleration. Some embedded stronger downbursts due to
water loading are possible amid an environment with 2.3 inch PWAT. A
severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely due to the expectation for
mostly sub-severe wind speeds from this line of storms.

..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/10/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5gJEVYb-FkgRf730BJm0fcl4mxJCFA6T5duFx6tNNDoTzL1rw11lvjr6yN2uqljPISk41jjD_= ILDIOoNEKyLv_vzV1c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 29518276 30088280 30498292 30898299 31278260 31318197
31268148 31098130 30588131 30228124 29958117 29748135
29558172 29518276=20


=3D =3D =3D
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