ACUS11 KWNS 100111
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100111=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-100345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1481
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0811 PM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023

Areas affected...North-central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 100111Z - 100345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue across
parts of the upper Mississippi Valley this evening. Hail and strong
gusty winds will be possible. The severe threat is expected to be
too marginal for weather watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis has a cold front draped from
central North Dakota into western Ontario, with several surface
troughs located across a moist airmass from the northern Plains into
the western Great Lakes. The RAP is analyzing a pocket of moderate
instability from eastern North Dakota into north-central Minnesota,
where widely scattered thunderstorms have developed early this
evening. MLCAPE in this area is estimated to be as great as 1200
J/kg. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs suggest that moderate
deep-layer shear is in place across much of central and northern
Minnesota, with 0-6 km shear estimated to be in the 40 to 50 knot
range. This environment should support an isolated severe threat
this evening. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary
threats. However, the severe potential should remain marginal,
mainly due to a lack of large-scale ascent across the region.

..Broyles.. 07/10/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Xda93dlKuEY6JyVoGPid2gcoDe5nsBrI7pDm3aULDiL3QODxyjP8E9ukt_cGGlgoiEpcGsL2= tQ-9oaRMqshoPTVin8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON 45839570 46679676 47189704 47559701 47869671 47999614
47989560 47829492 47099340 46619295 46179291 45739318
45459386 45449481 45839570=20


=3D =3D =3D
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