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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1477

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 9 17:51:56 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 091751
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091751=20
    ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-091915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1477
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1251 PM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023

    Areas affected...parts of eastern AR...western TN...northwestern
    MS...and northeastern LA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 091751Z - 091915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible this afternoon across
    parts of eastern Arkansas, northeastern Louisiana, western
    Tennessee, and northwestern Mississippi. A watch may be required in
    the next hour or two.

    DISCUSSION...Convection is ongoing along a surface boundary across
    western Tennessee. Additionally convection is reinvigorating with
    some areas of cooling cloud tops along the remnant outflow boundary
    from morning convection across eastern Arkansas. Ahead of the
    boundary is a very moist troposphere with precipitable water values
    near 2 in across northwest Mississippi. Deep-layer shear is
    relatively weak across the region, except for near the boundary
    across western Tennessee, where the 0-8 km shear is a bit stronger.
    Where the shear is weaker, multicell modes are expected to dominate,
    and a loosely-organized MCS may develop later. Across western
    Tennessee, some more organized cells are possible before cold pools
    congeal. Given the moist troposphere and overall weak deep-layer
    shear, the primary threat is expected to be damaging gusts from
    downdrafts with high precipitation loading. Trends will be
    monitored, and a watch may be issued in the next hour or two.

    ..Supinie/Mosier.. 07/09/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8r7ffVV-yTPqxhu80P3MWUUO-MEsDLudu9CGU4REwEHn6-hOY8j1dvb4pC3xCXmuHy3kl9hqK= Ve7HZ6OrluCR-ebTBU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

    LAT...LON 32429183 33029202 34069182 35189189 35479190 35669174
    35849124 36089056 36158952 36078865 35888810 35508781
    34988800 34238854 33768900 33048956 32489023 32289105
    32429183=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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