ACUS11 KWNS 091532
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091531 COR
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-091700-
Mesoscale Discussion 1473
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023
Areas affected...Central North Carolina and south-central Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 091531Z - 091700Z
CORRECTED FOR MISSING WORD IN DISCUSSION
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat will increase across central North
Carolina and southern Virginia by early afternoon. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch may be needed.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms developed along a pre-frontal
trough this morning across western North Carolina. There have been a
few reports of wind damage and measured wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph.
The environment continues to improve ahead of this activity with
temperatures in the low 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s
yielding an uncapped airmass according to SPC mesoanalysis.
Therefore, despite some 12Z CAM guidance insistence this morning
activity should dissipate (ie. 12Z HRRR), expect it to continue
eastward as destabilization continues with MLCAPE around 1500 to
2000 J/kg by early to mid-afternoon. Effective shear around 30 to 35
knots will support multicell storm clusters and potentially some
rotating updrafts. However, a warm/moist thermodynamic profile
should limit hail potential with water loaded-downdrafts as the
primary threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed shortly to
cover the threat from the ongoing storms and any additional
development which may occur.
..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/09/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8EvFPXduxiVQvAOyHhzKtu-ScNqvTKTWwe8WMh8UYEaIXJnv1Qb9Ha_AEMtrP8HumRQeq5o4Z= CvK66kBwZFBHCvieeE$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 35518122 36058060 36568018 37027921 37097787 36077749
34857858 34587971 34808083 35518122=20
=3D =3D =3D
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