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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1467

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 9 00:58:48 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 090058
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090058=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-090300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1467
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0758 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...Far Southwest
    Kansas...Oklahoma Panhandle...Far Northern Texas Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461...462...

    Valid 090058Z - 090300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461, 462
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Large hail and wind damage will continue to be likely with
    the stronger cells over southeast Colorado this evening. A tornado
    will also be possible. The threat is expected to spread
    southeastward and impact far southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma
    Panhandle. The far northern Texas Panhandle could also be affected
    by late evening.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1003 mb low over
    far southern Colorado. To the northeast of the low, surface winds
    are backed to the southeast. In response, an axis of maximized
    low-level moisture is located from the Oklahoma Panhandle
    northwestward into southeast Colorado. Surface dewpoints along this
    corridor are in the lower to mid 60s F. This is contributing to
    moderate instability, with the RAP analyzing MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000
    J/kg. In addition, backed low-level winds are evident on the RAP
    forecast soundings near Lamar, Colorado, which shows a looped
    hodograph, 0-6 km shear near 75 knots and 0-3 km storm relative
    helicity near 450 m2/s2. This will support supercell development
    this evening. The stronger and more dominant supercells will have
    large hail. A tornado remains possible over the next hour or so.
    Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur near the
    more intense cells. Wind damage will also be possible near or just
    ahead of the stronger outflows.

    ..Broyles.. 07/09/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5WqUkNqBAaz27NK93kqVgBGs3GFWlYgvnkQxi9VEumdzj_AR0K7VhHuQlLU95096EqPb6vqye= bvRstNoClpeyKfP0aE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 36980320 36420250 36310187 36490132 36790099 37440110
    38310220 38950340 38990390 38810429 38480433 37910405
    36980320=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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