ACUS11 KWNS 082219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082218=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-090015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1466
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Western Kansas...Far Southwest
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461...462...

Valid 082218Z - 090015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461, 462
continues.

SUMMARY...Wind damage, large hail and perhaps a tornado or two will
be possible across parts of the central High Plains this evening.
The threat will develop southward with time across eastern Colorado
and far western Kansas.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis has a 1005 mb low over
south-central Colorado with a quasi-stationary front located across
southeast Colorado. To the northeast of the front, winds are backed
to the east-southeast. A gradually veering wind profile with height
is evident on the Goodland WSR-88D VWP, which is contributing to 0-6
km shear near 55 knots. This, combined with moderate instability and
700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.0 C/km, analyzed on the RAP, will be
favorable for supercells with large hail. The Goodland VWP also has
0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 350 m2/s2 suggesting a tornado
or two will be possible with the stronger and more dominant
supercells. As an MCS organizes, the wind-damage threat is expected
to increase. The wind-damage threat will become maximized along the
leading edge of any line that can form and persist.

..Broyles.. 07/08/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9H8x5aEq_KbthysHyMFKGpzwwDFwhh8YNSeWzzgJhx1brnzLXN-JAtN6Ey-oJnKBGNBln7-PU= yMDJtykArb8UeUyIpY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 37990089 39750129 40990214 41270276 41240342 40940391
40360433 39650438 38790393 37900285 37380243 37130189
37330118 37990089=20


=3D =3D =3D
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