ACUS11 KWNS 081838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081838=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-082045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1463
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023

Areas affected...parts of northeast TX...northwest LA...south
AR...north MS...and southwest TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 081838Z - 082045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible across parts of far
northeast Texas, far northwest Louisiana, southern Arkansas, western
Tennessee, and northern Mississippi. Trends are being monitored for
a watch in the next couple hours.

DISCUSSION...Convection is ongoing near a remnant MCV and boundary
across central Arkansas and northern Mississippi. Ahead and south of
the convection, temperatures are in the low 90s F and dewpoints are
in the mid 70s, yielding a moist and strongly unstable troposphere.
However, short-term RAP forecast profiles in the region show weak
low-level and deep-layer shear, meaning multicell clusters with
water-loaded downdrafts should dominate in the area. Therefore, wind
damage should be the primary threat with these storms, and a
preferred area of clustering and wind damage may occur along the
boundary near I-40. With time storms should cluster and move off to
the east and southeast.

..Supinie/Mosier.. 07/08/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-RqPXnJkIWNvkQmItXt01M1vyUrbuFFExBKJn5YH8wXB4aSNiWIBCZyJPAy7Xe0WhIisI7EES= 11mSPfaUb9Uvuq0MCE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 33959445 34579285 35239202 35379154 35449028 35288889
35038833 34748818 34138828 33818850 33609033 33379147
32949297 32729409 32989459 33159487 33689481 33899471
33959445=20


=3D =3D =3D
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