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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1462

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 8 18:24:15 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 081824
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081823=20
    NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-082000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1462
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0123 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023

    Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...southeast Wyoming...and the
    Nebraska Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 081823Z - 082000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered supercell development is expected in the next 1
    to 2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...A low-level cumulus field has started to expand across
    northeast Colorado as temperatures have warmed into the low to mid
    70s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. SPC mesoanalysis
    indicates this warming is sufficient to erode convective inhibition
    across most of this region. Some storms have developed over eastern
    Wyoming, the Nebraska Panhandle, and the mountains west of Boulder.
    After another hour of heating, expect isolated storm development
    across the Plains. Given relatively weak storm-relative inflow
    (20-25 knots) expect storms to be somewhat small, but with 45 to 50
    knots of shear, expect them to be well-organized supercells with a
    threat for large hail and potentially severe wind gusts.=20

    The 16Z HRRR convective evolution seems logical with isolated
    mini-supercells across the Plains and a more widespread storm
    development across the Front Range and the Cheyenne Ridge eventually
    congealing and moving southeast later this afternoon/evening. A
    severe thunderstorm watch is likely, but timing remains uncertain.
    Expect a watch will eventually be needed, but if initial activity
    remains isolated, it could be deferred until later this afternoon.=20

    On the northern periphery, elevated storms have developed and will
    drift south and may eventually transition to more surface-based.
    These storms are north of the better low-level moisture/instability,
    but could pose some severe weather threat.

    ..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/08/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_M6RDf1LlYLQNJ7ZucKBH8zqbZq1y3Eb2ASXPkzOgofdzuyrQCUEXTVutDJHYyvlQMXwl20zK= VSfTO-ep3FGC1leue4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 38640509 39150553 40150575 40960580 41990571 42760523
    42950434 42970372 42730323 41150221 39550207 38600367
    38640509=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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