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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1461

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 8 15:25:14 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 081525
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081524=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-081700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1461
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1024 AM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma into the Arklatex and central
    Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 081524Z - 081700Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Current storms across southeast Oklahoma and western
    Arkansas could intensify which could necessitate a severe
    thunderstorm watch.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have continued in the vicinity
    of a remnant MCV across eastern Oklahoma in the wake of the
    overnight MCS. Within the last hour, a longer duration thunderstorm
    within this MCV has developed into a bowing segment across Scott
    County, Arkansas with additional storms developing to the southwest.
    SPC mesoanalysis indicates CINH has eroded downstream of this
    activity with temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid
    70s. Therefore, expect ongoing activity to persist through the
    afternoon.=20

    Overall, wind shear in the region is quite weak (20 to 25 knots per
    RAP forecast soundings), but some increased mid-level westerly flow
    in the vicinity of the MCV (35 to 50 knots per SRX and LZK VWP) may
    aid in storm organization. If convective coverage/intensity
    continues to increase over the next 1 to 2 hours, a severe
    thunderstorm watch may be needed.

    ..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/08/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!43tjodier-DVQ7U3XD4kZWNGvcU02OB1L1p95E7ijFYnY1nVJ4AnZtARNbfZ9Wrmt51clBoK8= 3o6A-_v5-FCY-uCxzg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

    LAT...LON 33989543 34579479 35079398 34869212 33909155 33069208
    32709295 32529367 32689454 32899514 33629552 33989543=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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