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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1457

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 7 22:21:15 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 072221
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072220=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-080015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1457
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0520 PM CDT Fri Jul 07 2023

    Areas affected...West Texas...Oklahoma Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459...

    Valid 072220Z - 080015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue across parts of west Texas
    over the next couple of hours. Wind-damage and isolated large hail
    will continue to be possible with the stronger storms. An isolated
    severe threat will also be possible to the northwest of Lubbock
    early this evening, where the severe thunderstorm watch has been
    extended in area.

    DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave
    trough moving through the central High Plains. The southern end of
    the shortwave trough is located in northeast New Mexico, just to the
    west of a maximum in instability where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE
    in the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range. The lift and instability will
    continue to support thunderstorm development over the next few
    hours. Two line segments are currently ongoing with one in the
    northwest Texas Panhandle, and the other located about 70 statute
    miles to the northwest of Lubbock. Some bowing structure is evident
    in each of these lines. The MCS is moving to the east at around 40
    knots. This should be favorable for wind damage along the leading
    edge of the stronger parts of the line. The strong instability,
    combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, will also
    support an isolated large-hail threat.

    ..Broyles.. 07/07/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7iZUlgE-HIqAYMf3QPX95fbaW5ibdZRaofOa0pAiQrRN8fNtj8MzUkYNDK63BMnfhO4-01lsb= h3sRx71GnavTXfPbfs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 34030286 34750263 35860250 36250243 36600213 36700138
    36520073 35970035 34770052 33880115 33350186 33290266
    33700300 34030286=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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