ACUS11 KWNS 071909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071908=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-072145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1455
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Fri Jul 07 2023

Areas affected...far northeast New Mexico...southeast
Colorado...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles/Northwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 071908Z - 072145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms are likely to develop from northeast New
Mexico and southeast Colorado by 21Z, and will spread eastward into
western Oklahoma with hail and wind threat.

DISCUSSION...Convection is beginning to form over the higher terrain
over eastern NM, near a surface trough and where gusty westerly flow
is enhancing convergence. Meanwhile, an MCV is moving southward over
southeast CO, with winds shifting to northerly. Farther south, air
mass recovery continues from the Panhandles into western OK.

Conditions are becoming favorable for a corridor of severe wind and
hail later this afternoon and through the evening as the
aforementioned NM convection expands and strengthens. Additional
development is possible across the northern Panhandles and close to
the KS border where convergence is maximized.

Modest midlevel westerlies combined with increased speeds in the
upper levels will favor organized severe storms across the area, and substantial instability and lapse rates aloft will lead to locally
very large hail and a few significant wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 07/07/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6FniFiy10C1TX5bfYWCp_0tAASeD-e8YxkwPXKCDRyGaRvytNYQ0HDsx1V1DaDX17GtKXoVka= qrVGGoeNZNn5Cc8Aq4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34720061 34710191 34780299 35100353 35420371 37200451
37470436 37490401 37300353 37190316 37120237 37160208
37020002 36979976 36599945 35969943 35359955 34929996
34740023 34720061=20


=3D =3D =3D
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