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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1445

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 6 22:59:26 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 062259
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062259=20
    COZ000-070100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1445
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0559 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023

    Areas affected...parts of central and southeastern Colorado

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 062259Z - 070100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorm development, initially including
    isolated supercells posing a risk for large, damaging hail and
    potential for tornadoes, appears possible as early as 6-8 PM MDT.=20
    Trends are being monitored for an additional severe weather watch.

    DISCUSSION...A surface low has been in the process of developing to
    the east of Pueblo, where sustained 2-4 mb 2-hourly surface pressure
    falls have been occurring. While insolation and downslope flow have contributed to a deepening well-mixed boundary layer around La
    Junta, an upslope component into the southern slopes of the Palmer
    Divide is maintaining boundary-layer moisture. This appears to be
    contributing to mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Latest
    objective analysis suggests that mid-level inhibition is becoming
    increasingly negligible where stronger low-level convergence is
    focused, roughly north of Lamar into the Limon vicinity.

    Pronounced veering of winds with height, beneath 30-50+ kt flow in
    the 500-300 mb layer across this region, is contributing to strong
    deep-layer shear supportive of supercells if and when thunderstorm
    development initiates. This appears possible as early as 00-02Z,
    and stronger convection may be accompanied by a risk for large,
    damaging hail, and potential for tornadoes as a southerly low-level
    jet strengthens further across southeastern Colorado.

    ..Kerr/Guyer.. 07/06/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_k2tuG8CYOM1FQR0ax3Oxvd_1fLk6Zbu7-VuNlNCiP91dAuPfNxKFI1Ig7_gAk_bz-vW-IVjd= C0Lgc94ICywUK20T1Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 39140434 38930262 38280221 38010261 38280324 38720454
    39140434=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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