ACUS11 KWNS 061954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061953=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-062200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1444
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023

Areas affected...northeastern WY and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 061953Z - 062200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this
afternoon and evening across northeastern WY. Multiple rounds of
storms are possible, with damaging wind gusts and large hail being
the primary threats. Watch issuance is likely later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating has yielded towering Cu along the
Bighorn Mountains and Absaroka Range in northern WY. These updrafts
have percolated for the last couple of hours as the boundary layer
slowly destabilizes and a subtle wave -- evident in upper-level
water-vapor imagery over ID -- approaches the region. Temperatures
rising into the 70s F with dewpoints generally in the low-/mid-50s F
reside to the east of developing convection, with slightly drier air
present on the western edge of the area in the Big Horn Basin. This
is contributing to MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg across the area. Some
inhibition remains, which should quickly erode in the next hour or
two given continued surface heating.

This expected environmental evolution should support steadily
organizing updrafts in the next couple of hours. The shear profile
will lengthen as the upper-level wave approaches, yielding bulk
shear supportive of supercells. Hodographs will be rather straight,
yielding some splitting structures as storms evolve through the
afternoon and evening. Combined with this shear profile, steep lapse
rates and relatively moist mid-levels will support a threat for
significant hail and damaging winds with more mature supercells. An
isolated tornado threat may also materialize around 00-03z if a
discrete storm interacts with backing low-level flow as the boundary
layer cools. Thereafter, some upscale growth is expected as storms
move east into SD/NE, transitioning to more of a damaging wind and
hail threat.

..Flournoy/Grams.. 07/06/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7ta40MUf-rupj3XRLUqmbtTN-haL3hY_UPU_MekHnR0Mf1tpm-NJQ5WGhMs4qMHvRpYxKiLFh= 1CuEDpAo6y0LjNL0_w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 42700580 43110682 43310752 43780819 44190832 44720822
45170795 45440707 45530554 45310457 44860362 44150328
43300332 42730384 42510488 42700580=20


=3D =3D =3D
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