ACUS11 KWNS 061913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061913=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-062115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1442
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023

Areas affected...eastern NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 061913Z - 062115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across
eastern NM, posing a threat mainly for sporadic wind gusts. Watch
issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Diurnal mixing is supporting deeper convection
initiation attempts along the Sacramento and Sandia-Manzano
Mountains in central NM. A couple of anvils are beginning to spread east-southeastward, indicative of modest westerly upper-level flow
impinging upon the area. Current analysis suggests some inhibition
remains along and to the east of the terrain, which may temper
short-term initiation attempts. Diurnal heating and mixing will
support moistening atop deepening boundary layers, resulting in
increased deep convection potential in the next few hours. Effective
shear around 30-40 kts is anticipated this afternoon, yielding
straight hodographs throughout the area. This could support
semi-organized convection moving off of the higher terrain into
eastern NM in the next few hours. Should this occur, localized
stronger downdrafts could yield sporadic gusty winds amidst deep,
well-mixed boundary layers. The overall threat will be tempered by
diminishing potential buoyancy aloft, and watch issuance is not
anticipated this afternoon and evening.

..Flournoy/Grams.. 07/06/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4fD0t0WG0DL5ohJN-u3e6wtjFk6R6_dv8VEv_DzcQYY20333fpwuqYD6i1mWfIwTCLpfe37Mn= E_NxRXiZjDVJbnKTWA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 32550368 32360432 32380516 32670548 33410561 34180553
35380523 35860481 36000403 35730315 34850271 33720285
32910325 32550368=20


=3D =3D =3D
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