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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1440

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 6 11:07:18 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 061107
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061106=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-061230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1440
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0606 AM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of west-central into southwestern OK and
    western north TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451...

    Valid 061106Z - 061230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated strong to severe wind threat persists. The
    need for a downstream watch remains unclear, but an extension in
    area to WW 451 has been made to address the short-term severe
    threat.

    DISCUSSION...A small MCS now moving across west-central into
    southwestern OK has produced mainly sub-severe wind gusts up to
    around 50 mph over the past hour or so based on Mesonet and
    ASOS/AWOS observations. Nearly all high-resolution guidance
    available indicates this cluster will slowly weaken over the next
    couple of hours as a southerly low-level jet diminishes.
    Observations have yet to show this weakening trend, and up to 1000
    J/kg of MUCAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear may still support
    some threat for convective organization with the cluster for the
    next hour or two. If the MCS can maintain its intensity, then an
    isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts would continue into
    more of southwestern OK and perhaps parts of western north TX. The
    need for a downstream watch remains unclear given the eventual
    weakening trend anticipated. But, a local extension in area to
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451 has been made to address the continued
    short-term severe threat.

    ..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/06/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5km4kxc2tuLzQVadDwjEHNTBAvoc6LKwIDDQM5W5yDzRPUkm5mb69U0GsgAP9Nxnul1889eP9= ZLma6fdyaImcFa2iJU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35129995 35459961 35789924 35499803 34319759 33829793
    33969955 35129995=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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