ACUS11 KWNS 060850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060850=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-061015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1439
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the OK/TX Panhandle into western OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450...451...

Valid 060850Z - 061015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450, 451
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind/hail threat continues early this
morning.

DISCUSSION...A measured severe wind gust to 52 kt (60 mph) was
recently recorded at KPYX in Ochiltree County TX with a small bowing
cluster moving southeastward. While the current intensity of this
activity on area radars appears somewhat marginal, there is still
strong deep-layer shear and a 25-30 kt southerly low-level jet
present across the TX Panhandle into western OK. This should
continue to provide organization of the current cluster in the short
term. The airmass immediately downstream is not overly unstable with
prior convection/outflow shunting the more moist low-level airmass
farther south. Still, isolated severe/damaging winds remaining the
primary threat given the linear nature of the ongoing convection and
up to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE present. Somewhat more discrete
thunderstorms across the western TX Panhandle that have recently
developed may also pose some threat for large hail. With the current southeastward track of the small cluster, a southward extension in
area to Severe Thunderstorm Watches 450/451 may be needed.

..Gleason.. 07/06/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9SgwYBr4V-HAVey5vyq8fQGdugA4u1ShM1iDTFXjLB7hS7fopZs8kUndwSbCWMSQJN_XEhzSn= 5G9hxbpTahhAI0Slpw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON 35700253 36320067 36499932 35289880 34829933 34800214
35700253=20


=3D =3D =3D
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