ACUS11 KWNS 052310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052310=20
KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-060145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1435
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0610 PM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Colorado...northeastern New
Mexico...southwestern Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle
vicinity

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449...

Valid 052310Z - 060145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development may continue into the 7-9 PM, before a general increase
in thunderstorms commences, with potential to organize and become
accompanied by a risk for strong wind gusts later this evening. A
new severe weather watch remains unlikely in the near term, but
trends are being monitored for the possibility of a watch later this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Focused low-level forcing for ascent, near the
intersection of a zone of stronger differential surface heating
across a remnant outflow boundary and lee surface troughing, is
maintaining isolated supercell development across the eastern Texas
Panhandle. At the same time, additional isolated storms are slowly
developing and propagating off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, while large-scale ascent driven by lower/mid-tropspheric warm advection
gradually overspreads areas near/north through northeast of the
Raton Mesa vicinity. This appears to be occurring near the southern
periphery of 30-50 kt westerly/northwesterly flow in the 500-300 mb
layer, and downstream of an embedded low amplitude perturbation
crossing the Colorado Rockies. While pronounced veering from the
low-level easterlies to the north of the outflow boundary (and
southerlies to the south of the outflow) is contributing to
moderately strong deep-layer shear, deep-layer ambient westerly mean
flow is weak and supportive of only slow storm motions with a
substantial southward propagational component.

There may be little change in ongoing convective trends into the
00-02Z time frame, when the onset of diurnal cooling begins to
result in increasing inhibition for parcels characterized by
moderately large CAPE, along the outflow boundary and to the lee of
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. However, forcing associated with
warm advection, aided by a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet,
may support a general increase in convective development. While
this will probably be rooted above the decoupling boundary layer, it
still appears that elevated inflow may be still be characterized by
sizable CAPE, with cloud-bearing layer shear sufficient to support
an organizing cluster as activity grows upscale.

..Kerr.. 07/05/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!75_hbMY5gWBdVam93FqQvB8ukuHicIg-FQHC4vpHh2I_-gSLd3PxiwW-H75IPVko4dKjmhQlN= 6Uhm5QlCcG5qWrjY80$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37070476 37920460 37430001 35290020 35330275 36290475
37070476=20


=3D =3D =3D
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