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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1433

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 5 20:35:38 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 052035
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052035=20
    OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-052230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1433
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0335 PM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023

    Areas affected...much of southeast Colorado into northeast New
    Mexico and the far western OK/TX Panhandles

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 052035Z - 052230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...At least isolated supercells capable of very large hail,
    damaging gusts and a brief tornado threat are expected to form in
    the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...A very moist yet cool air mass currently exists across
    much of the central Plains, with easterly surface winds over the
    High Plains of CO/NM. Visible satellite imagery shows breaks in the
    cloud fields, with temperatures gradually rising. Of note are the
    upper 70s F temperatures now into the Raton/Trinidad area, which
    when combined with mid 50s dewpoints results in very strong
    instability. Farther north toward Colorado Springs, stratus has
    locked in cool temperatures for much of the day, but recent
    observations indicate mixing is underway with winds out of the south
    around 15 mph.

    The moist upslope flow combined with heating will lead to at least
    isolated supercells forming off the high terrain, with initial hail
    threat. Continued heating as well as persistent moist easterly flow
    will support the hail/wind/tor threat extending eastward perhaps
    toward the Panhandles tonight.

    ..Jewell/Grams.. 07/05/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!92YtjGYTDbvUSOcp8chUiIFK3aRiCVdp8qDrcV6qQFEYKlWZC8ngUTIu0N5QclYbD59Dp9jYd= NuN_cfqh8boWnxlaM4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 36310503 36680489 37090479 37410488 37660495 37940491
    38260500 38950483 38960468 38880426 38510337 38230253
    37900226 37510218 37160219 36700231 36280263 35900298
    35820325 35800359 36130465 36310503=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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