ACUS11 KWNS 051839
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051838=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-052045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1432
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Wed Jul 05 2023

Areas affected...southern NC...SC...and eastern GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 051838Z - 052045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Upscale growth into loosely organized clusters is possible
this afternoon across portions of GA and the Carolinas. Sporadic
wind gusts and hail would be possible, but watch issuance appears
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Multiple thunderstorm complexes have developed across
portions of central-southern NC southward through SC. These storms
are percolating in an environment with 2500+ J/kg of MLCAPE amidst
relatively weak 0-6-km shear (around 15 kts per area VADs). The
uncapped, quite moist troposphere will support continued deep
updraft development throughout the afternoon. Cold-pool
consolidation should be tempered in the short-term by relatively
warm downdraft production (due to high moisture), but some upscale
growth seems possible in the next few hours given high expected
coverage. This is consistent with ongoing convective trends in
central NC and coastal SC as well as short-term numerical guidance.
Should this occur, locally damaging wind gusts may be possible along
with sporadic hail in the stronger cores.

35-40 kt gusts have also been reported with the thunderstorm complex
moving through north-central GA. While this system is not
well-depicted in numerical guidance, it may persist as it moves
eastward along/ahead of a cold front into increasingly buoyant and
uncapped air. This would bring a heightened threat of sporadic wind
gusts, and perhaps local instances of hail, through eastern GA into
SC in the next few hours. Despite increasing convective coverage,
the potential for an organized severe threat appears rather limited,
and watch issuance is not currently anticipated.

..Flournoy/Grams.. 07/05/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Y-UioY2egfcEnxGdJgdFDkjs3vgINludGA36_PPkC--6V0cdBBynuGdWCRrjdbbwqRDOmiYE= P2OnWcZq3iaUZqG3jc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON 32987929 32607982 32438026 32558081 32828153 32958240
33178290 33638308 34108277 34328206 34398108 34918031
35607977 35827928 35837835 35527776 34997734 34327751
33747791 33747844 33467890 32987929=20


=3D =3D =3D
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