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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1423

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 4 23:07:29 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 042307
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042307=20
    IAZ000-NEZ000-050030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1423
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0607 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern Nebraska and far west-central Iowa

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445...

    Valid 042307Z - 050030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch 445 this evening. The damaging-wind risk should gradually
    increase with continued upscale growth during the next couple hours.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KOAX shows two primary
    thunderstorm clusters tracking eastward along a cold front moving
    across parts of eastern Nebraska this evening. Around 40 kt of
    westerly deep-layer shear (per OAX VWP data) oriented oblique to the southeastward-advancing cold front is favoring gradual upscale
    growth, and this trend should continue during the next couple hours.
    A moist/unstable air mass ahead of this activity, combined with the
    favorable deep-layer shear, will support organized/deep updrafts
    along the organizing cold pool, with a continued risk of large hail
    and increasing damaging-wind potential.=20

    Farther south over parts of southeastern NE, continued thunderstorm
    development is expected both along the cold front and an outflow
    boundary extending into the area from north-central KS. This
    activity is evolving in a pocket of strong surface-based instability
    and strengthening deep-layer shear. Large hail up to 2.5 inches in
    diameter and damaging gusts are possible here -- especially in the
    early stages of discrete/semi-discrete supercell development.

    ..Weinman.. 07/04/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_L8LZZ1DHOSppQVIKaeGjkZZK8-anr1N0BNvhyTCYu4-khBhKN6EalybGT32roYew29aD0V_G= Ta4eTER2_LpFQXGmIU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...

    LAT...LON 41209776 41529741 41739711 42019689 42289665 42479644
    42499616 42359590 42019591 41559600 41049640 40509702
    40339744 40429803 40649823 40889816 41039808 41209776=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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