1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1421

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 4 19:18:29 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 041918
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041917=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-042145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1421
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0217 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023

    Areas affected...much of central/eastern Nebraska into
    northern/western Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 041917Z - 042145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are likely to form later this afternoon from
    northeast Nebraska along an outflow boundary southwestward into
    Kansas within the surface trough. Both damaging winds and hail will
    be likely.

    DISCUSSION...Surface map depicts an outflow boundary from northwest
    IA into far northeast NE, with a surface trough extending
    southwestward into northwest KS. Low-level lapse rates continue to
    steepen with strong heating over KS, and this warming air mass will
    gradually spread into southern NE. Moisture is plentiful across the
    entire area, with dewpoints generally ranging from 65 in the hot air
    to around 70 into eastern NE.

    Substantial cumulus fields are developing both in the cooler/moist
    stationary front/modifying outflow boundary regime over NE, and near
    the heated trough into western/northwestern KS. Continued heating
    and convergence along the boundaries will likely lead to scattered
    storms by late afternoon. Steep lapse rates will favor strong
    outflow winds, with veering winds with height and marginal supercell
    profiles favor large damaging hail.

    ..Jewell/Grams.. 07/04/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-EwpOMgcVrL-49hSI65oGeIxTSXPZ--ksVddSL-wXFyhGe8j--Mp751XsdR7BO6ctL5JeHtK6= Gro3cIGPMXArGot_8Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 39820040 40519983 41259944 41969875 42389799 42499760
    42389690 42049669 41329691 40399756 39449817 38889887
    38639947 38510006 38340123 38530146 38770155 39250102
    39820040=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)