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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1417

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 4 04:30:23 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 040430
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040429=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-040600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1417
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1129 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

    Areas affected...Central/Southeast South Dakota and far northeast
    Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 040429Z - 040600Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A risk for isolated large hail will initially exist, with
    the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts expected to increase
    from west-to-east overnight. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely
    be needed, particularly for south-central/southeast South Dakota.

    DISCUSSION...To the north of a front across southern South Dakota,
    widely scattered elevated storms will continue to increase through
    the early overnight across much of central into
    northeast/east-central South Dakota. Some of these storms may
    produce severe hail on an isolated basis.

    Of greater concern, as discussed in Mesoscale Discussion 1416, is an upscale-growing quasi-linear MCS that continues to evolve across
    southwest South Dakota along/south of I-90 as of 415z/1015pm MDT. A
    54 kt wind gust was recently measured at Chadron, Nebraska as of
    342z/942pm MDT. A strengthening southerly low-level jet (around 35
    kt as per the North Platte WSR-88d VWP) will likely maintain this
    MCS with forward propagation in vicinity of the west/east-oriented
    front across southern South Dakota. This is where moisture/buoyancy
    are maximized coincident with easterly low-level flow. An additional
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed to cover this
    increasing potential for thunderstorm wind damage.

    ..Guyer/Hart.. 07/04/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7V9xdTEI5qkq6Sh8QhHNUzEZocEUXBlN5-MFY3VdXI4AizavbDA8j_50rKHu57yTkU9tfMOpz= bZDaGsSBh29fCoFHw8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 44830105 45119953 44059717 42709694 43079921 43469981
    43710076 44830105=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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