1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1412

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 3 23:09:20 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 032309
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032308=20
    WYZ000-040045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1412
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0608 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of south-central Wyoming

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 032308Z - 040045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe outflow winds may accompany high-based
    thunderstorms into early evening. A watch is unlikely south of
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch 441.

    DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms are evolving eastward across
    parts of central and southern Wyoming this afternoon. Within the
    pre-convective environment, modified RAP forecast soundings show a
    deeply mixed boundary layer with large temperature/dewpoint spreads
    (inverted-V thermodynamic profile). Over central WY, a belt of 30 kt
    midlevel flow will favor some updraft organization and the potential
    for a higher concentration of severe winds. Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch 441 has been locally extended into Natrona County to account
    for this risk.=20

    Farther south, despite weaker midlevel flow and related deep-layer
    shear, the aforementioned deep boundary layer will still support
    strong to severe outflow winds with disorganized, high-based
    thunderstorms. The severe-wind risk over this area (southern WY)
    should remain too isolated/sporadic for a watch.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/03/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9oQapWaX-RrGE-wqVImqiOgwumbJzYvR9Cer_cmxZgApikLnzTgURFf5lHz_gZw5Tiw54MO3a= KISx4btFYMA-YkOXck$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...

    LAT...LON 43420606 43310554 43180523 42920493 42590471 42210468
    41530490 41220534 41090597 41060677 41100753 41210816
    41560856 41890872 42390886 42790882 43150862 43310823
    43420754 43420606=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)