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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1409

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 3 20:48:06 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 032047
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032047=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-032145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1409
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0347 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

    Areas affected...northeastern WY...southwestern SD...and far
    northwestern NE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 032047Z - 032145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts and a few instances of large
    hail are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of
    northeastern Wyoming, southwestern South Dakota, and far
    northwestern Nebraska. A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed in
    the next hour or so.

    DISCUSSION...A stationary boundary has set up across portions of
    northeastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota. Convection has
    begun to develop with the deepening cumulus field along the boundary
    in an environment characterized by 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and 35-45
    kts effective bulk shear, per mesoanalysis. Given the sufficient
    deep-layer shear, steep lapse rates, and straight hodographs, expect
    a large hail threat, and a couple 2-inch reports are possible with
    early isolated development along the boundary. With time, expect
    consolidating cold pools producing upscale growth into one or more
    bowing segments, producing a threat for severe winds.

    ..Supinie/Grams.. 07/03/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_yDjMYqwRP3gXgpZ_jTIc6sDc4gSs7s0Dm0u0pzPicqXEzT5bMxnGlNMSrYNV4sZRJdZ9vn4D= fCFTuRxfNHIV65jI9g$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 43170499 43580663 44090707 44220707 44600685 45030584
    45040412 44540182 44400096 43589972 43119961 42809998
    42620171 42710276 43170499=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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