ACUS11 KWNS 032022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032022=20
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-032115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1408
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

Areas affected...Southeastern New York...northeast
Pennsylvania...northern New Jersey

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438...

Valid 032022Z - 032115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts remain possible with the strongest
storms in southeastern New York. Convection moving into east-central Pennsylvania/northern New Jersey may intensify, but confidence is
low.

DISCUSSION...The strongest storms in WW 438 have generally been in
southeastern New York where surface heating has been greater. For
northern New Jersey, subsidence has become less pronounced than
earlier this afternoon with some shallow cumulus developing. While
storm coverage may be less in east-central Pennsylvania into
northern New Jersey than farther north, there is some potential for
convection to intensify as it moves east out of central
Pennsylvania. Damaging wind gusts remain the greatest threat. A
strong storm or two may move into southern New England, but the
threat is expected to remain isolated. Additional watches are not
expected this afternoon.

..Wendt/Grams.. 07/03/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!53h7vG8SAPGHMKFKOxJVyrwKG3CE1uqr3631neTNajUsl0a9Y9l0Pt2K9ltlwuQmjGORQpr3x= GMMQi3hGN7FRk3f9wI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON 40977593 41287609 41687603 42467539 42587426 42417370
42337297 42047278 41807282 41567305 41397336 41117374
40697436 40607546 40977593=20


=3D =3D =3D
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