• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1406

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 3 19:19:16 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 031919
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031919=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-032115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1406
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0219 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

    Areas affected...Western/central North Carolina and northern South
    Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 031919Z - 032115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong/severe storms are possible this afternoon.
    The eastern extent of the threat will depend on further
    destabilization in central North Carolina. A watch is possible, but
    uncertainty remains medium to high.

    DISCUSSION...With an MCV moving through western/central North
    Carolina earlier today, subsidence is evident on visible satellite.
    However, a moist airmass remains up against the southern
    Appalachians and storms have initiated in western North Carolina
    within the last hour and a half. The airmass ahead of the current
    convection clearly has some capping present, but destabilization
    will continue into the afternoon as temperatures have warmed into
    the upper 80s/low 90s F (warmer than RAP forecast temperatures).
    Modest mid-level winds are present in parts of northern North
    Carolina and drop off fairly rapidly in to South Carolina per
    regional VAD winds. A few strong to severe storms capable of
    damaging winds are possible, but the timing and eastern extent of
    the threat away from the terrain is uncertain. Convective trends
    will be monitored through the afternoon.

    ..Wendt/Grams.. 07/03/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-BPmFl_3xOnZW3UeQRSdVM1-OEiocDR8BPeqYP_8rhl0eS-AIaUNjt7JK96BgllegH-HYoHW7= VPKScoIMlSJOcvVA0I$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

    LAT...LON 34867863 34517904 34317980 34668124 35318241 35658230
    35948199 36028167 35938138 35928058 36008006 36137901
    36327810 36137755 35687785 34867863=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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