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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1403

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 3 17:53:47 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 031753
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031753=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-032000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1403
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1253 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

    Areas affected...parts of central and southeastern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 031753Z - 032000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts and perhaps a couple instances of
    marginally severe hail are possible this afternoon across portions
    of central and eastern Oklahoma. A watch is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of convection is ongoing along a northwest/southeast-oriented stationary boundary in central
    Oklahoma. South and west of the boundary, temperatures have warmed
    into the low 90s F with dewpoints near 70 F, yielding MLCAPE values
    of 2000-2500 J/kg with steep low-level lapse rates. Given weak
    deep-layer shear, single- and multi-cell clusters should dominate.
    These storms will pose primarily a damaging wind threat given steep
    low-level lapse rates and large precipitation loading in downdrafts,
    though some marginally severe hail is possible.

    Additional convective development is possible along the boundary as
    heating continues this afternoon, and this would also pose primarily
    a damaging wind threat, along with perhaps some marginally severe
    hail. With time, storms are expected to form one or more clusters
    and move southeastward.

    ..Supinie/Grams.. 07/03/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!__MyiDY2IR5lrO7HJ0EIfclxYtLSwBnvyPFV7jC3D1tL3sLil90TJ2CqP8LCaSRK0cvbxbGGJ= cu6nz4yRuJg4MBzfKc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35839843 36489786 36679726 36599634 35929536 35759498
    35369470 34839466 34199506 33869555 33799591 33869734
    34099845 34699895 35399879 35839843=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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