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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1402

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 3 17:49:18 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 031749
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031748=20
    ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-031945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1402
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1248 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

    Areas affected...portions of the Ark-La-Tex region and northern AL
    and MS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 031748Z - 031945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected for the
    next several hours. Sporadic gusty winds and small hail will be the
    primary threats.

    DISCUSSION...Convective development is underway in portions of the
    Ark-La-Tex region eastward through northern AL and MS. These
    updrafts are forming along and to the south of a weak cold front
    with temperatures generally in the low 90s F and dewpoints in the
    70s F. Boundary-layer mixing beneath mostly clear skies has yielded
    an uncapped airmass characterized by around 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE and
    effective shear around 15-20 kts. Convective development thus far is
    consistent with environmental expectations, including locally
    stronger updraft pulses with reflectivity cores extending to around
    40000+ ft (e.g., Lawrence County cell in northern AL). The overall
    environment will remain mostly steady for the next few hours as the
    weak cold front becomes quasi-stationary beneath modest, zonal flow
    aloft. As such, continued scattered thunderstorm development is
    expected with sporadic damaging wind gusts and small hail being the
    primary threats with stronger local updraft pulses.

    ..Flournoy/Grams.. 07/03/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7E8-yBEsjGgKcrOpg2BuU5QrzYFnSm7Y6Og7GdpEyoDVlEC-Vwo6Lq6_xB663hmVr8lRVXBPY= G6Rq5ewj_Z711h_X70$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 33319511 34179455 34859302 35139009 35138807 34988646
    34738606 33798617 33218678 32698800 32279037 32089226
    32269355 32619442 33319511=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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