ACUS11 KWNS 031708
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031707=20
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-031900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1400
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic into southern
New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 031707Z - 031900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be
capable of strong/damaging winds and small to marginally severe
hail. A watch is probable for parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic
into southern New England.

DISCUSSION...Surface heating within the Poconos has led to deepening
cumulus early this afternoon. At least subtle forcing from a
weakening mid-level trough will likely initiate widely scattered to
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Temperatures are already
into the lower 80s F across northern New Jersey, northeast
Pennsylvania, and the lower Hudson Valley (ahead of RAP forecast
temperatures). Continued heating could support around 1000 to
locally 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Mid-level winds should be sufficient for=20
around 35 kts of effective shear. Organized convection will pose a
risk of primarily damaging winds with small to isolated marginally
severe hail. A watch is probable for parts of the region this
afternoon.

..Wendt/Grams.. 07/03/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-9zr2g_zAxNINeVqbcuQitG8vDM8AYn4CVg79pIjhzPVqZr4372wjt3eYbS9PSePn60rnecL6= hwYHJI1p1d1Xf0h6ZU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON 40517556 40717632 41267628 41857598 42137539 42447447
42037349 41097359 40517556=20


=3D =3D =3D
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