ACUS11 KWNS 022342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022342=20
NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-030115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1396
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

Areas affected...Parts of NJ...far southeastern PA...DE...and
eastern MD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435...

Valid 022342Z - 030115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch
435 this evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar data shows several
discrete/semi-discrete thunderstorms with periodic/transient
midlevel rotation tracking eastward across far southeastern PA and
MD this evening. Ahead of this activity, rich boundary-layer
moisture (middle/upper 70s dewpoints) should continue to yield
surface-based inflow for these storms as they progress eastward
during the next few hours. Locally damaging gusts are the primary
concern, though a brief tornado cannot be entirely ruled out given
the ongoing discrete mode and at least modest low-level hodograph
curvature (per DIX/DOX VWP data). Over eastern MD and DE, upper
80s/lower 90s temperatures amid upper 70s dewpoints are contributing
to strong surface-based instability. This, combined with slightly
stronger deep-layer shear (around 30 kt of effective shear) could
favor an increased risk of damaging winds this evening.

..Weinman.. 07/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_twjxJYkhwZthuiLp3DQFJ_M0L0Dgkup0O_Yj0Z3-j89TZgrYz6Bq_yiFotDnGfnrD2wJ0DBp= ZrIp_DVk9neZyfpTTE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON 39147641 40257558 40757506 40787477 40587426 40257418
39197483 38457523 38247561 38297607 38397631 38687646
39147641=20


=3D =3D =3D
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