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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1394

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 2 22:56:40 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 022256
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022255=20
    MNZ000-NDZ000-030100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1394
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0555 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of northeastern ND and far northwestern MN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 022255Z - 030100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe-storm risk will increase during the next
    few hours. Marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts will be
    possible.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from MBX shows an isolated
    thunderstorm evolving eastward along a NNE/SSW-oriented surface
    boundary/wind shift this afternoon. Within the pre-convective
    environment, modified RAP forecast soundings indicate strong
    surface-based instability driven by a moist/well-mixed boundary
    layer (lower 70s dewpoints) beneath steep lapse rates in the
    850-500-mb layer. While deep-layer flow/shear is not overly strong,
    some increase in midlevel westerly flow is expected ahead of an
    approaching midlevel jet streak currently crossing parts of SK
    Canada into early evening. As a result, around 25 kt of effective
    shear and the aforementioned strong instability could favor a couple
    loosely organized thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail
    and locally damaging gusts. The overall severe threat is expected to
    remain too isolated/marginal for a watch.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/02/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_8vaBzrELeCeYFiBrXBQl04F1kLEIbeyNuxrUr55qVxZ3jQGKphO17eZEAFjQNlUM6uoqBXTo= l-whpfQsOkptTGxLTU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

    LAT...LON 48289955 48489981 48819986 49049985 49089951 49089834
    49059699 48899679 48519680 48169723 48109786 48139881
    48289955=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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