ACUS11 KWNS 021909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021908=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-022045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1387
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

Areas affected...far northeast TX...southern AR...northern LA and
west-central MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021908Z - 022045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few microbursts producing strong gusts between 40-60 mph
are possible through the remainder of the afternoon from far
northeast Texas into southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana and
west-central Mississippi.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and
shift east/northeast through the afternoon. This activity is
occurring within moderate to strong instability, supported by
surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s. However, vertical shear is
forecast to remain weak across the region, with only around 20-25 kt
effective shear magnitudes evident in objective analysis and region
VWP data. Nevertheless, very steep low-level lapse rates and PW
values approaching 2 inches may support sporadic microbursts with
wind speeds around 40-60 mph possible. The overall threat is
expected to remain limited given lack of strong shear and only
modest large-scale ascent and a severe thunderstorm watch is not
expected.

..Leitman/Grams.. 07/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-6S6cRN37rVq5fTLs1dRjNO3afh3IHrfyBhg3U9GRmeEDlq5hDzl7tbl8tWDQCx9tO3DGJGlL= N5ClY0I_IbHHP-u_hc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 32689326 33029451 33239459 33849428 34669314 34899198
34759111 34149055 33639001 33289006 32679064 32359115
32689326=20


=3D =3D =3D
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